Observe Phenomena, Make Assumptions, Predict Opportunities

By definition, the job of a senior executive is to make decisions. By deciding where to place resources (financial, people, time, marketing, training, rewards, etc.) and where not to place resources, the executive impacts the short-term and long-term results of the organization (for better or worse). Of course, the challenge is to decide where to place those resources.

Peter Drucker, the great management thinker, said that his greatest strength early in life was his ability to observe phenomena and ask questions. My simple and unscientific definition of phenomena is "new news." What's different, what stands out and what opportunities do these changes present? You probably have heard Wayne Gretzky's famous quote: "Rather than going to where the puck was at any given moment, I always skated to where the puck was going to be." The same is true in business. We need to observe phenomena, make some assumptions as to what these phenomena indicate and then predict the opportunities where we can add more value.

Here's a variety of phenomena that leap out at me:

In married couples where both spouses work, one-third of the time the wife earns more than the husband.

Dr. Phil, a balding middle-aged man, has become enormously popular with women between the ages of thirty and fifty-years-old.

Some massive corporate conglomerates including AOL Time Warner, Disney, GE and Tyco have suffered significant losses on the stock market even though they've done nothing criminal (unless you count some of Dennis Kozlowski's very questionable activies).

More and more white-collar work is being done in China for American corporations.

Breakthroughs in reducing heart attacks are on the horizon. These pose the potential for dramatic decreases in repeated heart attacks for individuals and dramatic increases in the cost of heart care.

Ok, so what does all of this potentially mean and what are the opportunities?

After being held back from taking on any meaningful corporate positions until the 1980's, women have steadily risen in terms of their titles, income and percentage of upper management positions. In my opinion, women do a far better job than men at creating support groups that foster their forward movement. Groups like Women Presidents' Organization and National Association of Women Business Owners provide tremendous opportunities for mentoring, nurturing and grooming women executives for higher-level positions. (Of course, a person could successfully argue that most groups under a variety of names have always been about advancing men in their careers.) Based on observed behavior, I think men tend to compete for positions and women tend to groom other women for positions. (This might be a good time for me to say that I don't like stereotypes or generalizations. However, the point of this article is to look at phenomena, make assumptions that could explain those phenomena and predict opportunities for adding greater value.) I predict that within fifteen years 40% of all senior corporate executives will be women.

So what opportunities does this create? And what does Dr. Phil have to do in all of this?

Dr. Phil, even though at times I think he can be nauseatingly arrogant and ruthlessly direct, is extremely honest and straightforward. So why is he so popular with women? I believe there are two explanations. One, women no longer want people to talk down to them or to sugarcoat their statements or to avoid serious issues. They want someone to treat them with respect and to be straightforward and honest. Women executives are in the boardroom now. That is no longer new news. I think the trend now is that women not only want to be included in the boardroom, but also to be treated with just as much respect as any man. Two, women want shortcuts as much as men do. They don't have time to waste. They want the answers and they want them now. (This obsession with shortcuts continues to be supported through recent phenomena: the extraordinary sales of "Who Moved My Cheese?" a book which can be read and explained in about fifteen minutes and the endless number of diet products that promise better health in two easy steps.)

Notice: women are becoming more and more the breadwinners in American families, they want straightforward and honest feedback, want to be treated as equals, and want to get to solutions faster.

Opportunity:	If your company is still operating in the antiquated world of all white male leaders, you are probably going to deal with a severe culture shock in the next decade. Now is the time to start recruiting and developing highly competent minority executives. If you don't, you may go the route of the Model T: still functional but not desirable.
Opportunity:	Treat all people the same. Be just as honest and straightforward in giving input to women as you do to men. Women have proven over and over again that they have exactly the same capacities as men in every role requiring knowledge workers. Stereotypes from the 50's need to be thrown out. There are certain regions in the United States where men still hold a disproportionate level of upper management positions. These regions will suffer dramatically over the next decade unless they change their ways.
Opportunity:	Think of other groups that have been held back for centuries and extrapolate what the future might look like for them. For example, people in communistic nations such as China are beginning to see the light at the end of their tunnel. They see the potential for greater income. They are quickly moving into serving more and more as knowledge workers. Look for ways to meet their needs as developing executives. Which of your products or services will meet their upcoming needs and how can you deliver these goods to them?
Opportunity:	AOL Time Warner is teaching us that companies need a clear, simple and single value proposition. In other words, what is the value that they deliver? Southwest Airlines delivers cheap, convenient and funny air travel. Dell Computers delivers inexpensive and customized computer solutions. Wal-Mart sells more for less. Acura provides reasonably priced high-quality cars with phenomenal service programs. But what the heck does AOL Time Warner do? The same goes for Disney these days. What is the value they deliver? It used to be all about family entertainment, but now is it a media conglomerate, is it an internet company, is it a corporate raider or is it a supplier of soft porn? (I kid you not. Right before I sat down to write this article, I was watching a basketball game. Suddenly an extremely sexy woman in a string bikini pops up on the screen and starts rubbing oil over her body. I thought somehow that the Playboy Channel was being piped into our set and I was going to have to do some quick explaining to Barb. Instead, it turns out that ABC TV, which is owned by Disney, has a new show coming out about finding the sexiest people in America. What in the world does that have to do with family entertainment?) What is the value it delivers? And how does all of this connect to you?

I suggest you make sure that your company can clearly articulate the value it delivers in terms of who gets what and how they are better off. Also, in terms of purchasing stocks, I suggest that the companies you purchase stock in have to have a clear value proposition. Too many companies lately have suffered from the Caesar Complex: they want to rule the whole world. It's not the size of the company that matters. It's the scope of the value they are trying to provide. If it's hazy and vague and overwhelmingly broad, then I suggest that you avoid it. If you are looking to provide value to a client, make sure that the client has a clear value proposition.

Look at GE right now. Jeffrey Immelt admitted recently that the future of GE has to come through better sales of its CURRENT businesses. It can not continue to buy up companies and call that growth. Corporate conglomerates like GE, which have no clear and consistent concept of the specific value they deliver to customers, will need to redefine their approach in the coming years. Owning 20% of the world doesn't make a lot of sense for any corporation if it's not clear what your brand stands for.

The issue involving heart care points out once again that people will pay whatever is asked of them as long as the long-term health of their loved ones is improved. The opportunity lies in constantly looking for ways to add value regardless of the cost. People will pay more for greater value. Don't let all of the nonsense about this being a tough economy keep you from finding ways to add more value to other people. No matter how tough things get, the companies that will thrive over the next decade are the ones who constantly improve the value they have to offer to other people and do it in a consistent and clear manner. Besides, as the newest innovation becomes yesterday's news, the prices will begin to drop.

Look around you at your customers and your market. What has changed or is changing? What is the new news? What opportunities do these phenomena indicate? How can you redirect your resources to better meet the needs that are being created?

Here's one more. The Harry Potter books are among the best-selling books of all time. However, they are completely contrary to the long-held belief that children between ages eight and fourteen won't read a long book with no pictures in it. I believe this phenomenon indicates that children avoid boring and meaningless books. They want something with some meat in it. The opportunity is there for teachers and authors to write more sophisticated books and provide more sophisticated learning experiences than they have in the past.

Take care and have a great month!

Dan Coughlin

Accelerate Update This section is always current to the current month

I suppose every book changes an author's life to a certain degree. My first book, which was self-published in 1995, was called Inside Out: A Catalyst for Conscious Living. It's out of print now for a number of good reasons. The layout, which yours truly did, looks like something a first grader could do today. And the ideas are very theoretical, which doesn't fit my approach anymore. However, I read the book a few months ago, and I was pleased by how clearly I had explained my early thoughts on improving performance.

My second book, Corporate Catalysts: How to Make Your Company More Successful, Whatever Your Title, Income, or Authority was published in 2005 by Career Press. That book was a step forward in clarifying my ideas on improving performance and understanding how to write a whole book. It's one thing to dream about getting a book contract and another thing to write a 70,000 word manuscript.

My third book, ACCELERATE: 20 Practical Lessons to Boost Momentum, which was published in May 2007 by Kaplan Publishing, has changed my business dramatically. Up until that book was published, I mostly did projects for four companies: McDonald's, Marriott, GSD&M, and Toyota. In the past 12 months, I've worked with business owners, executives, and managers within dozens of small, medium, and massive organizations in more than 20 industries ranging from boats to banks to software to financial services to trucking to lighting to home healthcare to hospitals to optometrists. It's been an exciting adventure.

If you want to see my speaking calendar for 2008, which we'll try to update every two weeks, please click here.

Currently, I have 66 speeches scheduled for 2008. If you would like for me to speak at one of your events in 2008 or 2009, feel free to contact me at dan@thecoughlincompany.com and I will be glad to see if we can make it work.

If you want to see my speaking topics and a video of footage from some of my keynote speeches, please click here.

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